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We know him better than his mother and we are not unable to reach him as we
reached those before him. The Israelis say he is our precious gain that came to us
on a golden platter. Tehran whispers he is the hell that has come to meet the
Palestinians and Israelis who hope that they had not chosen Haniyeh. Rather, he is
the password for the end of the Gaza war and the path of Iran’s revenge against
Israel. Western and Israeli intelligence circles say: Long live Sinwar, the man who
does not smile or get angry, the strong man devoid of feelings who will never leave
Gaza and will never surrender, and will not, as those who investigated him from the
Israelis describe him. Today, as many believe, he will be the reason for the end of
the war and the valley of the crushing response from multiple fronts that
Khamenei, that is, Israel, pledged and promised, with all faith after it assassinated
Ismail Haniyeh while he was sleeping and reassured about the leadership of
Hamas today, it comes to the Iranians, whether it was involved in killing Haniyeh
as
the Western report claimed, or it is grieving over his death and wants revenge as
Tehran says, in addition to many warnings that may impose a recalculation by
returning the response or even canceling it or perhaps reducing it to a minimum.
The lowest that does not harm the wolf and does not destroy the sheep
These are some of the equations that we will shed light on for those who ask about
Iran’s response and about the reactor of Yahya Sinwar, Iran’s man, reaching the top
of the pyramid in Hamas and the messages of Hezbollah Secretary-General
Hassan Nasrallah to Bashar al-Assad that you should have supported us in our
war, but you did not do so, in light of the talk about movements by his chief of
staff to support Iran, but behind the back of Assad, who is committed to the
instructions of the Russians, which are that you have nothing to do with a multi-
front or single-front response to Israel, at a time when American crowds continue
to arrive to protect Tel Aviv and perhaps to destroy Iran, it was necessary and
thought of a response greater than what is permitted for it. In light of all the data,
let us start with choosing Sinwar as the head of Hamas. Yes, it was a regional and
international shock. Internationally, I feared that it would disrupt the negotiations,
exacerbate the war and expand its flames, but Western and Israeli reports melted
to the exact opposite of this. A choice that might end the war, linking this to his
political ambitions in choosing Sinwar, according to these reports, instead of
Haniyeh might help push the hostage negotiations and end the war for several
considerations, the first of which is that it was his intention, according to these
reports, that he was… Consequences before the negotiations because Muhammad
is burdened with visions that may be contradictory between Tehran and Doha and
with them Ankara, and he also lives outside Gaza
As for Sinwar, he will deal with the negotiations in a more realistic manner since he
is still inside Gaza. Sinwar may also want to play his role as the movement’s leader
and ensure his election in the Hamas movement elections in 2025, which he
cannot do until the bet deal is completed, which will lead to the end of the war and
ensure that he demands a halt to the assassinations of Hamas leaders. Sinwar’s
importance in this position increases because in addition to becoming the head
of Hamas’s political bureau, he is also the leader in Gaza and it is possible that he
will strengthen his position as a leader and strengthen Hamas’ position as an
alternative to Fatah, the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation
Organization. This may justify the obstacles that prevented the selection of
Khaled Meshaal as the movement’s president, despite Meshaal being considered a
a moderate figure close to Qatar. At a time when many analyses suggest that Israel
will not negotiate with Sinwar and will not rest until it liquidates him, considering
his part of the plan for the greatest disaster in Israel’s history, namely the Al-Aqsa
Flood, especially since he is Iran’s man and the most extremist in Hamas. However,
from here we can highlight the second point, which is the Iranian-Israeli benefit of
participation.
On the Iranian side, it can be said that if Tehran had a say yesterday over Hamas
with the presence of Ismail Haniyeh, then it say is what controls Hamas today
with the presence of Sinwar, far from the influences of Qatar and others, and this is
the valuable gain that came to Iran. As for Israel, it may view the matter from the
the perspective of partial interest, that Iran be satisfied with a small response to
the
assassination of Haniyeh, or postponement or even cancellation in exchange for
Israel agreed to allow Sinwar to manage the Gaza Strip for a while and negotiate
with him on the release of the hostages and a water truce. Hebrew reports even
went so far as to say that the backstage of the next deal is to end the war and
Sinwar’s exit from Gaza allowed an alternative government in it. Perhaps what
supports, even theoretically, the hypothesis that Israel and Iran may reach an
implicit understanding are some indicators that must be reviewed according to
analysis and research centers, including the Iranian president’s statement that Iran
reserves the right to respond to Israel, which is a sentence that Iran usually says
when it does not want to respond immediately at least. It is also possible to read
the statements of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah when he hinted
at the possibility of responding alone to Israel. What is happening is that many
Iraqis stand in the way of the comprehensive response that Iran talked about, even
if reports of Intelligence leaked by CNN
I heard that Hezbollah seems to be attacking Israel independently of Iran because
it is moving faster than Tehran, which is still working on determining how to
respond, indicating that Hezbollah may act without prior warning, which does not
apply to Iran given Lebanon’s proximity to Israel as a direct neighbor. According to
these reports, Hezbollah will launch the first strike, and the targets will be military
and security, not civilian, including the army headquarters in central Tel Aviv, the
Mossad headquarters, and intelligence bases. We should also not forget that
Nasrallah sent an indirect message to Bashar al-Assad that Israel’s victory means
the end of the dream of liberating the Golan, which was supported by reports that
Assad is sending veiled messages to Israel that he is not interested in the
the comprehensive response that Tehran circles talked about. These reports stated
that the Syrian Chief of Staff, General Abdul Karim Ibrahim, made moves with Iran
without the knowledge of the Syrian president, approving attacks on Israel from
Syrian territory and agreeing in mid-July to launch marches towards Israel, all of
this without the desire of Assad, who is committed to Russia’s instructions not to
enter any war against Israel.
Finally, it can be said that the successive strikes by America and Britain on Yemen
may make it difficult for it to participate in any coordinated attack with Tehran on
Israel has ensured that Iran is taking a thousand calculations into account
with the rush of American armored vehicles, aircraft, and forces to defend it. After
all this, the question remains: Will Iran carry out a small, limited response to save
face, or will it be satisfied with its victory by choosing Sinwar, the head of Hamas?
Oh Tehran, what shook you was the choice of…
